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Black Friday predictions for the UK

Blog

Black Friday predictions for the UK

Ian Kerr

Shoppers in the UK are predicted to go quite mad this week, splurging £7.42bn in the lead-up to Black Friday (15% up from £6.45bn in same period 2016).

IMRG has revealed its Black Friday peak period forecast, covering the eight-day period Monday 20 – Monday 27 November 2017.

For Black Friday itself, shoppers will spend £1.35bn (9% up from £1.23bn on Black Friday 2016).

That's a lot of parcels.

But has Black Friday created a lull in Christmas shopping?

In previous years, in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, many sites made a big song and dance about their participation. IMRG reports that this year notably fewer have taken that approach, with most opting not to mention Black Friday at all in advance of the anticipated peak week.

IMRG reckons that this is because ‘Black Friday coming soon’ promos deter shoppers from making purchases earlier in the Christmas shopping season in the expectation that the best deals are yet to come.

The evidence of this pre-Black Friday lull from conversion rates (the percentage of retail site visitors that convert to sales) is revealed in the IMRG Capgemini e-Retail Sales Index. Website visitors are a bit more focused on pre-Black Friday research rather than purchasing in the lead-up – the average October conversion rate for 2013–15 was 4.8%; in October 2016 it was 4% and October 2017 4.4%.

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